Three defeats in a row.
There are more sophisticated ways of analysing SFIDA Setagaya’s current predicament, and we will eventually get to some of them. Defensive structures to examine, transition problems to worry about, and an increasingly unpleasant goals-against column demanding attention.
But sometimes football resists sophistication.
SFIDA have lost three games in a row.
That is quite enough now.
The latest instalment was particularly annoying because, for approximately 70 minutes against Iga FC Kunoichi Mie, everything seemed rather pleasant. Misuzu Uchida scored. SFIDA led 1-0. There were points appearing on the horizon.
Then Iga scored twice and won 2-1.
Well, that was briefly nice.
Their opponents this weekend, Asahi Intecc Loveledge Nagoya, probably feel much the same.
They are second in Nadeshiko League Division 1 and chasing another title, but arrive after a 3-0 defeat to Nippatsu Yokohama FC Seagulls. Before that came a 0-0 draw with Vonds Ichihara.
SFIDA have lost three consecutive matches.
Nagoya have failed to win their last two.
Something has to give.
Preferably them.
Nagoya Have Rather More to Lose
An important distinction exists between the two varieties of desperation arriving in Iga.
For SFIDA, tenth place and three straight defeats make this another attempt to arrest a season that keeps threatening to slide somewhere unpleasant. For Nagoya, however, dropped points carry consequences at the opposite end of the table.
They have scored 37 league goals and conceded only 15.
That +22 goal difference tells you most of what you need to know. Nagoya have generally been very good at both ends of the pitch.
Their recent wobble is striking precisely because it looks so unlike them.
Before the draw with Ichihara and defeat to Nippatsu, Nagoya had beaten Ehime 6-0, Iga 2-1 and Viamaterra 2-0.
Then somebody pulled the plug.
No goals in two matches. Three conceded last weekend. A title challenge suddenly requiring some minor emergency maintenance.
This therefore does not feel like the ideal moment for SFIDA to encounter them.
It might, however, be the interesting one.
Teams chasing championships tend to become increasingly aware of the scoreboard as autumn arrives. Possession that once felt patient starts feeling slow. A missed chance becomes slightly heavier. Twenty goalless minutes can suddenly feel like 45.
SFIDA’s first objective should therefore be fairly straightforward.
Make Nagoya uncomfortable.
Nagoya are the Shachihoko. A golden fish-tiger. Yes, a golden fish-tiger. I do not make the rules. Nagoya is also famous for eel, and SFIDA absolutely does not want to spend Saturday afternoon discovering which side of that particular food chain they occupy. Be the fish-tiger. Do not be the eel. This tactical analysis has deteriorated rapidly.
First, About That Defence
Unfortunately, we need to discuss another number.
Twenty-nine.
That is how many goals SFIDA have conceded this season, compared with 23 scored.
More immediately concerning is the sequence behind their three-match losing run: two conceded against Yunogo Belle, three against Nippatsu and two against Iga.
Seven goals across three matches.
Misuzu Uchida can score 12 league goals. Mizuki Horie can have eight. You can have enough attacking talent to make almost every match interesting.
Eventually, somebody has to stop the other team scoring.
Nagoya provide an especially nasty test because their positional game is designed to stretch exactly the spaces SFIDA cannot afford to surrender. Their 4-2-3-1 or 4-5-1 shape gives them bodies centrally while their wide players and advancing full-backs try to pull defenders away from the areas they would prefer to protect.
Ayaka Nemoto’s battle with Ayumi Natsume could quietly become one of the afternoon’s most important.
And behind all of it sits Mio Otsuka.
At 19 and 180cm, Otsuka possesses the kind of physical profile that makes an afternoon of crosses and shots slightly less terrifying than it otherwise might be. Against Nagoya, she may need every centimetre.
SFIDA do not necessarily have to prevent shots altogether. Against a team this productive, that might be fantasy.
They need to force bad shots.
Force Nagoya wider. Keep bodies between ball and goal. Survive the initial pressure. Make the title challengers look at the clock.
Then perhaps things become interesting.
We Have Been Here Before
The obvious problem with imagining SFIDA surviving a Nagoya assault is that we already possess evidence of what happens when they nearly do.
Back in Matchday 6, SFIDA scored twice against them.
That should be the encouraging bit.
The less encouraging bit is that Nagoya scored three.
The particularly unpleasant bit is that the winner arrived in the 94th minute.
That result feels almost excessively SFIDA from where we are now. Enough attacking threat to hurt one of the league’s strongest teams, followed by the crushing discovery that the match continues until the referee actually ends it.
Saturday therefore cannot simply be about staying competitive.
SFIDA have already demonstrated that.
It is about finishing the job.
And Then There Is Ami Takeuchi
Fortunately, we have acquired a new asset.
Ami Takeuchi has arrived from Lion City Sailors, adding another attacking option to a team that, rather amusingly, already has two of the league’s more productive goalscorers.
Whether she makes her debut on Saturday remains to be seen, but her arrival gives Takashi Hamada another possibility at precisely the point when SFIDA desperately need something different.
Takeuchi is stepping up from Singapore into a considerably more demanding Japanese second-tier environment, so expecting her to immediately stroll into Nadeshiko League Division 1 and start dismantling defences would be slightly unreasonable.
I am nevertheless choosing to entertain it.
She cannot solve the seven goals conceded across the last three matches.
Unless we play her at centre-back, which seems counterproductive.
But perhaps there is another solution.
Win 7-3.
Problem solved.
More seriously, Takeuchi potentially gives SFIDA something extremely useful against Nagoya: another player capable of turning a transition into an attack before the opposition can reorganise.
SFIDA are unlikely to dominate possession. Nor should they waste energy pretending that they will.
The opportunity will come when Nagoya commit players forward.
Win the ball. Get it through midfield quickly. Find Uchida, Horie or potentially Takeuchi before Nagoya’s defensive shape returns.
Three passes rather than 13.
That might be where this game lives.
Uchida Remains the Obvious Threat
Of course, all the excitement around a new signing should not distract from the fact that SFIDA already possess a forward with 12 league goals.
Misuzu Uchida scored again against Iga, but Nagoya hardly need reminding what she can do.
When these sides met at SFIDA’s home earlier this season, Uchida scored both goals in the 3-2 defeat. SFIDA ultimately left with nothing after Nagoya’s stoppage-time winner, but Uchida had already demonstrated that this is a defence she can hurt.
That feels important heading into the return.
She has now reached more than 200 appearances for the club and continues to provide the reliable attacking reference point around which SFIDA can build.
Against Nagoya captain Rei Tachibana, this becomes less about whether Uchida can dominate prolonged periods and more about whether she can find those same decisive moments again.
SFIDA may spend long stretches without the ball.
That makes efficiency essential.
One transition. One clever movement across a defender. One loose ball inside the penalty area.
Uchida has already shown twice that she can turn those moments into goals against Nagoya.
Nagoya will expect to create more chances.
SFIDA need theirs to matter more.
Horie complicates things further, especially if they deploy her again as an impact option. A tiring Nagoya defence dealing with Uchida for an hour, then facing Horie and potentially Takeuchi, is at least an intriguing proposition.
There are worse emergency plans.
Can We Please Have a Normal Final 20 Minutes?
This is where my confidence becomes considerably less robust.
SFIDA’s problem recently has not merely been losing football matches. It is the manner in which control disappears.
Against Iga, they were ahead.
Against Nagoya earlier this season, they were still level deep into stoppage time.
The final stages of Saturday’s match therefore matter psychologically almost as much as tactically.
If it is 0-0 after 70 minutes, excellent.
If SFIDA are somehow leading, even better.
That’s when Nagoya’s urgency will increase. Full-backs advance further. Midfielders gamble. Crosses arrive. Second balls suddenly seem magnetically attracted to the opposition.
SFIDA cannot retreat until Otsuka is essentially operating from inside her own goal.
There must remain an escape route.
That is another reason Takeuchi’s arrival is fascinating. Even if she does not start, having fresh attacking legs available late could discourage Nagoya from simply throwing everybody forward.
Sometimes the best way to protect your own penalty area is to give the opposition a reason to worry about theirs.
So, What Exactly Am I Expecting?
Chaos, potentially.
Nagoya are clearly the stronger side this season overall. Thirty-seven goals scored, 15 conceded, and second place is not accidental.
SFIDA are tenth and have just lost three consecutive matches.
The sensible prediction therefore points in one direction.
But football gets interesting when the sensible prediction meets human beings.
Nagoya have just been beaten 3-0.
They need points.
SFIDA need a response.
A new attacker might be involved. Uchida keeps scoring. Horie remains dangerous. Otsuka could have one of those afternoons where a goalkeeper gradually turns an opposition crowd from expectant to furious.
And somewhere underneath all of that is the increasingly simple requirement attached to SFIDA’s season.
Stop losing.
I do not particularly care how.
A beautifully controlled 1-0 victory would be lovely. A grim 0-0 would be accepted without complaint.
A completely deranged 7-3 win in which Ami Takeuchi introduces herself to Nadeshiko League football by immediately becoming Lionel Messi would also be permitted.
Three defeats are enough.
Time for something to give.
Horie’s Homecoming, With Extra Negi
There is a little homecoming tucked away in all of this for Mitsuki Horie, too. She is from Aichi Prefecture and spent part of her youth career with NGU Nagoya FC Ladies, so she knows this corner of Japan rather better than most of the travelling SFIDA squad.
Perhaps she can play tour guide afterwards and take everyone out for misokatsu: deep-fried pork cutlet absolutely drowned in Nagoya’s thick, sweet and savoury red hatcho miso sauce. I went to Nagoya once and had it. Excellent stuff. Lots of negi on top, please. Win the football match first, obviously.
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