There are enough people on the internet telling you which famous football team is going to beat somebody rubbish this weekend.
I’m not going to be another one.
Welcome to Monday Madness, where I use a football prediction app I’ve built myself to investigate some of the less celebrated fixtures taking place around the world.
It’s a fairly simple arrangement. I feed it statistics, it produces predictions, and I investigate whether there’s anything interesting worth considering.
Al Wasl vs Al Ahli: Mehdi Taremi Really Should Have Stayed at Porto
There was a time when Mehdi Taremi was scoring goals for FC Porto, playing Champions League football and enjoying a rather respectable European career.
Then he got ideas above his station.
The Iranian left Porto for Inter Milan in 2024, scored one Serie A goal in 26 appearances, and subsequently found himself at Olympiacos. His performances improved in Greece, although playing for one of the few credible clubs in a relatively weak domestic league probably helped.
And now? UAE football.
I maintain that leaving Porto was a mistake.
Anyway, Al Wasl face Saudi Arabian opposition Al Ahli in the AFC Champions League Elite. They’re here. They’re playing. That’s enough about them.
What interests me is that my app expects a fairly entertaining match, particularly because both teams have been rather generous when it comes to conceding goals.
Neither has demonstrated much consistency in keeping clean sheets recently, and the prediction suggests that defensive organisation might not be the defining characteristic of this encounter.
That brings me to the first of Monday’s suggested markets: Over 2.5 goals.
Three goals across 90 minutes doesn’t seem an unreasonable possibility given the recent defensive records, and the app is particularly enthusiastic about that outcome.
Atalanta vs Venezia: Weren’t Atalanta Supposed to Be Good?
I thought Atalanta were supposed to be good.
There was a period when everybody seemed to think Gian Piero Gasperini was a tactical genius. Supporting his footballing philosophy became something of a personality trait among people who wore Carhartt clothing and desperately wanted you to know they understood football better than everybody else.
Anyway, Atalanta have lost their last three matches.
Congratulations to them.
My app still considers Atalanta the stronger side, but I’m not particularly interested in trusting a team that has recently developed such an impressive relationship with losing football matches.
Instead, the numbers point towards something considerably simpler: Over 1.5 goals.
It’s the sort of market that doesn’t require either team to suddenly become brilliant. Two goals between them will do, and the app anticipates enough attacking opportunities to make that a reasonable possibility.
Atalanta might rediscover their old confidence. Venezia might make things awkward. They might both continue being rather disappointing.
As long as two goals arrive, the precise distribution isn’t particularly important.
Germany U23 Women vs Sweden U23 Women: Two Good Teams, Something Has to Give
Luca Emily Birkholz is having a wonderful 2026.
The German youngster scored the winner against Italy in April, bagged a brace against Belgium just four days earlier and found the net again in October’s 2-0 victory over Scotland.
She’s clearly enjoying herself at this level.
Sweden have their own attacking talent in Manchester United’s Ellen Wangerheim, who recently produced a rather ridiculous 45 minutes against Finland.
Introduced at half-time, she assisted two goals for Nova Selin before scoring the winner herself in a 3-2 victory.
Three goal contributions in one half. Not bad.
On the surface, this looks like a fixture between two teams perfectly capable of scoring goals. Both have demonstrated attacking quality, although much of their recent success has come against opposition they would reasonably expect to compete well against.
And that’s where things become interesting.
My app suggests Under 2.5 goals, with a 58.8% probability. It’s hardly an overwhelming prediction, but there is a reasonable argument behind it.
Germany have won their last four matches against Scotland, Denmark, Italy and Belgium, conceding just once. Against Scotland, they enjoyed 76% possession, won seven corners to none and eventually secured a 2-0 victory. Denmark and Italy were also beaten without scoring.
Sweden’s recent results tell a slightly different story. They’ve beaten Finland 3-2, drawn 1-1 with Mexico and defeated Norway 2-0. They’ve also suffered a 3-0 defeat against England, demonstrating that their attacking success isn’t necessarily guaranteed against stronger opposition.
Both sides can score. Both have shown they can concede. But they’ve generally been facing opponents of varying quality, and this meeting might offer a better indication of how their defensive organisation holds up against a more evenly matched team.
Germany won’t necessarily enjoy the same territorial dominance they had against Scotland, while Sweden might find that creating opportunities against this German defence is rather more complicated than it was against Finland.
For all the excitement surrounding Birkholz and Wangerheim, this could be a contest where the defensive work deserves just as much attention.
And perhaps that’s why the model expects fewer than three goals.
Two talented teams, two reasonably organised defensive units and considerably less space for their attacking players to enjoy themselves.
HJK Helsinki vs AC Oulu: Mads Borchers Has Been Busy
Mads Borchers is having a rather enjoyable time in Finland.
The Danish attacking midfielder recently scored a hat-trick in a 6-0 victory, which is a perfectly reasonable way to announce that you’re feeling confident.
Oulu’s Rasmus Karjalainen has been productive across the season too.
Now in his third spell with the club, he’s scored ten league goals and another five in domestic cup competitions. Unfortunately, his recent performances haven’t been quite so impressive.
He hasn’t scored since the middle of August.
That’s a fairly substantial drought for somebody whose job involves putting a football into a net.
What makes this fixture interesting is the contrast between those two players. One arrives after scoring three times in a single match, while the other has spent several weeks trying to remember what celebrating a goal feels like.
You might expect HJK to provide the attacking entertainment, and my app certainly favours them.
However, its stronger prediction concerns the possibility of one side failing to score.
Consequently, Both Teams to Score: No is the market I’m highlighting.
Karjalainen’s recent struggles provide some context for that selection, although Oulu’s attacking prospects obviously extend beyond one player.
Equally, Borchers’ hat-trick doesn’t mean HJK will suddenly score six goals every weekend.
Football would be considerably easier to predict if it worked like that.
Monday Madness: Four Matches, Four Markets
So there we have it. Four fixtures that probably won’t dominate your social media feed, four markets identified through a homemade statistical model and absolutely no need to pretend I’ve discovered the secret to football betting.
For those looking for the best BTTS bets for today, Al Wasl vs Al Ahli offers an interesting case for both teams scoring, while Germany U23 vs Sweden U23 and HJK vs Oulu point towards at least one clean sheet.
If you’re wondering what the safest bet on soccer might be, I’m afraid there isn’t one. Football has an irritating habit of refusing to follow instructions.
And if you’re hunting for the best soccer betting odds, you’ll need to do that part yourself. I’m interested in the matches and the statistical arguments, not directing anybody towards a bookmaker.
There’s already enough soccer betting online content promising extraordinary returns without me joining in.
Instead, Monday Madness is about exploring the statistics, discovering interesting players and occasionally questioning whether my computer knows something I don’t.
Sometimes it’ll be right. Sometimes it’ll be spectacularly wrong.
We’ll find out.
See you next Monday.
